The cycle of violence in the Middle East escalates daily as democratic protesters confront dictators and authoritarian regimes demanding reform. In Libya, the situation is getting especially ugly as the world’s longest-reigning dictator, Col. Muammar el-Qaddafi, promises never to bow out of the conflict in spite of hundreds of people who have been killed in recent violence and thousands who are demanding he leave. The cycle is starkest where military forces and police fire on mourners marching in funeral processions honoring the dead, creating more funerals, more marches, and more anger.
Yesterday the son of Qaddafi, Seif al-Islam el-Qaddafi, went on public television to inform Libyans that there would be no concessions and that they would never cede power, setting up a conflict that will surely cripple the nation and inevitably lead to the downfall of this regime. He also warned of civil war and occupation, and defiantly said that the regime would fight until the last man.
“Libya is made up of tribes and clans and loyalties,” Qaddafi claimed. “There will be civil war.” He also warned, “The West and Europe and the United States will not accept the establishment of an Islamic emirate in Libya.”
The people of Libya are angry, and the more the dictatorship turns its guns on them the more of them will turn out into the streets demanding change, the more will be shot, the more people will march in funeral processions, the more people will be shot. This cycle of violence and the stubborn insistence of the regime will lead to an all out insurgency, revolution, and possibly civil war. This is the ultimate price that must be paid for political transformation in countries that are deeply authoritarian and long overdue for substantive change.