Some workers won’t qualify for some unemployment benefits in relief package

From today’s CNBC News Online:

The $2 trillion coronavirus relief package President Donald Trump signed into law Friday significantly expands unemployment benefits for out-of-work Americans.

The law pays laid-off and furloughed workers an extra $600 a week, for up to four months, and extends existing state benefits by 13 weeks. It also offers jobless benefits to previously ineligible groups, such as gig workers and freelancers. Nearly 3.3 million people filed first-time claims for unemployment last week — shattering the previous record, set in 1982, by around 2.6 million people, according to the Labor Department.

“It truly is, in a lot of ways, a very generous package,” said Chris Moran, a partner in the labor and employment practice group at law firm Pepper Hamilton in Philadelphia. Yet, some could receive smaller payments than others or miss out entirely. Here are some of those groups.

Tip workers

Workers who derive a big chunk of their paychecks from tips, like waiters and bartenders, may get smaller unemployment checks than they hope to. It largely depends on whether an employer reports those tips as income. States determine the size of unemployment checks based on a worker’s prior wages, generally over the last four quarters.

Gig, self-employed workers without pay records

While gig and self-employed workers are newly eligible for unemployment benefits, they may not qualify if they don’t have the proper work and pay documentation. This will largely depend on forthcoming guidance from the Labor Department about the kinds of acceptable documentation, and states’ interpretation of that guidance — currently among the biggest wild cards in the unemployment expansion, experts said.

Read the complete article here.

Coronavirus to cost California 125,000 hotel jobs trade group says

From today’s Los Angeles Times:

Struck by a severe drop in travel demand, California’s hotel industry is expected to lose more than 125,000 jobs in the next few weeks, more than any other state, an industry trade group estimated Monday.

The hotel industry in the Golden State is expected to be hit hardest by the coronavirus outbreak because California has the most hotel jobs — about 285,000 — according to the American Hotel and Lodging Assn. trade group.

In addition to the loss of 125,000 hotel jobs, another 414,000 jobs that are supported by the hotel industry, such as waiters, busboys, bartenders and limousine drivers, could disappear in the next few weeks, the group said.

Only last month, the average occupancy rate — the percentage of hotel rooms filled — was 62% across the country, according to STR Global, a Tennessee company that tracks hotel data. By mid-March, the average occupancy rate nationwide had dropped to 53%.

To break even, hotels need to have an occupancy rate of 41% to 63%, depending on the type of hotel, according to industry analysis. Upscale hotels need a higher occupancy rate to pay for extra amenities, such as room service, valets and concierges, while economy hotels can break even with a much lower occupancy rate.

Because of the pandemic, hotels in some cities, including Seattle; San Francisco; Austin, Texas; and Boston, are reporting occupancy rates below 20%, with some individual hotels already shutting down, according to the American Hotel and Lodging Assn.

“The impact to our industry is already more severe than anything we’ve seen before, including September 11th and the Great Recession of 2008 combined,” Chip Rogers, chief executive of the trade association said in a statement Monday.

The lodging industry requested the federal government provide $150 billion in financial aid to keep the hotel industry afloat during the crisis. That is in addition to the $100 billion requested by other segments of the travel industry, such as convention centers, theme parks and tour companies.

Read the complete article here.

Pandemic Erodes Gig Economy Work

From today’s New York Times:

It was just after 11 a.m. last Wednesday when Jaime Maldonado, 51, pulled his rented Nissan into a lot outside San Francisco International Airport. He figured he had a long wait ahead — about two hours — before Lyft would ping him to pick up a passenger.

Occasionally, jets roared overhead — but not many, which meant not enough passengers for Mr. Maldonado, who said that before the coronavirus outbreak, he spent just 20 to 40 minutes waiting outside the airport for customers. To kill time, he got out of his car, looping the mask he recently started wearing around his wrist, and went to talk to other drivers.

As the minutes ticked by, Mr. Maldonado wondered out loud, “What am I going to do to pump gas and feed my kids tomorrow?” His number of rides in a typical week had dropped to around 50 from 100 earlier in the month, he said, and his payout had plunged by half to about $600 a week, from which Lyft would subtract the rental fee for his car.

The coronavirus pandemic is exposing the fragile situations of gig economy workers — the Uber and Lyft drivers, food-delivery couriers and TaskRabbit furniture builders who are behind the convenience-as-a-service apps that are now part of everyday life. Classified as freelancers and not full-time employees, these workers have few protections like guaranteed wages, sick pay and health care, which are benefits that are critical in a crisis.

While gig economy companies like Uber and DoorDash have promoted themselves as providing flexible work that can be lifelines to workers during economic downturns, interviews with 20 ride-hailing drivers and food delivery couriers in Europe and the United States over the past week showed that the services have been anything but that.

Instead, as the fallout from the coronavirus spreads, gig workers’ earnings have plummeted and many have become disgruntled about their lack of health care. Many others are also feeling economic pain from the outbreak — layoffs have hit workers in retailing, airlines, hotels, restaurants and gyms — but even as public health agencies have recommended social isolation to insulate people from the virus, gig workers must continue interacting with others to pay their bills.

Read the complete article here.

More than half of American jobs are at risk because of coronavirus

From CNN News Online:

A week ago, Darrin Dixon wasn’t all that concerned about the coronavirus. Now he’s losing sleep over the prospect that the virus could cost him his food truck and catering business, which provides three jobs, including his own. Sales at Dixon’s food truck, KC Cajun, plunged this week as businesses in downtown Kansas City, Missouri, where he’s based, have shifted to working from home. His catering business is having cancellations like he’s never seen before.

“I know I’m stressed. I’ve had sleepless night. It’s just scary because we don’t know what we’re going to do,” said Dixon. His situation is a harbinger of the problems facing the US economy from the coronavirus, which could be far deeper and more widespread than they initially appeared. And because it will hit small businesses like Dixon’s particularly hard, it could take years for the economy to fully recover — even after the coronavirus crisis is long over. It’s not just jobs at airlineshotelsamusement parks and sporting events that are at risk. It’s the food trucks that serve office workers or school students who are now staying home. It’s the dry cleaners who clean the dress clothes that will not be worn as workers stay away from their offices. It’s hair stylists, dog walkers, babysitters, restaurant workers and others who provide services that people no longer need or can’t afford.

More than half of US jobs at risk

Nearly 80 million jobs in the US economy are at high or moderate risk today, according to analysis in the last week from Moody’s Analytics. That’s more than half of the 153 million jobs in the economy overall. That doesn’t mean that all those jobs will be lost. But it’s probable that as many as 10 million of those workers could see some impact to their paychecks — either layoffs, furloughs, fewer hours or wage cuts, said Mark Zandi, chief economist at Moody’s Analytics.

Of those 80 million jobs, Moody’s Analytics projects that 27 million are at high risk due to the virus, primarily in transportation and travel, leisure and hospitality, temporary help services and oil drilling and extraction. Maybe 20% of those workers, comprising about 5 million jobs, will be affected, Zandi said. The other 52 million jobs are judged to face “moderate risk.” They are in areas such as retail, manufacturing, construction and education. Some 5 million of those workers are could be unemployed or underemployed.

Read the complete article here.

The fastest-growing job in each state

From today’s Yahoo Finance News:

The unemployment rate rose slightly to 4.0% in January 2019, while the labor force participation rate hit its highest mark since 2013. Overall, the report indicated that the U.S. labor market is still chugging along.

And some jobs are growing faster than others. Construction and extraction jobs are in high demand in the U.S., along with installation, maintenance, and repair services. Production jobs are also quickly developing, as are mathematical and technology-focused occupations.

Using data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) and projections from the government-backed Projections Managing Partnership (PMP), we mapped out the top jobs by growth rate (as opposed to plentifulness).

Read the complete article here.

A Strong Jobs Report, Charted

From Oct. 3  NYT “TheUpshot” Blog by Neil Irwin:

Remember a month ago, when a crummy August jobs report raised some questions about just how robust the labor market recovery truly was? Never mind.

The September numbers are in, the last to be reported before midterm elections, and they show a job market that is recovering steadily but surely, with the unemployment rate falling below 6 percent for the first time since July 2008. And a solid 248,000 net new jobs were created.

But what are the finer details of the report telling us about the state of the American labor market? While the overall thrust of the report is unquestionably positive, there are some signs of continued weakness buried in the Labor Department numbers that give some reason for pause.

But first, the good news. The 248,000 gain in September payroll employment is part of a bigger trend over the last year, in which payroll gains have taken a decisive shift upward. You can see the shift in the chart of year-over-year job gains.

Over the course of 2014, the trend has risen from around 2.1 million net new jobs a year to 2.6 million as of September, the strongest since April 2006. That may be the single most important number to know to understand what people are talking about when they discuss the acceleration of American job creation.

So what about that unemployment rate? Crossing below the 6 percent threshold to 5.9 percent is surely a talking point we will hear from Democratic candidates in the remaining weeks of this election cycle, and there is no question it is good news.

And many of the internal details that are part of that decline in the unemployment rate are good, too. In September, 232,000 more people reported being employed and 329,000 fewer people reported being unemployed.

But here’s the less rosy sign of the report. The improving job market does not seem to be pulling people who left the labor force over the last few years back into it. In fact the size of the labor force actually ticked down by 97,000 in September, which in and of itself is too small a number in too volatile a series to make much of, but is part of a longer trend of the size of the labor force holding steady rather than increasing.

Read the entire article and see the graphics here.

North Carolina’s Misunderstood Cut in Jobless Benefits

From today’s NYT blog “The Upshot” by Justin Wolfers:

Since North Carolina effectively eliminated unemployment benefits last year for people unemployed 20 weeks or more, the state has become a symbol in the partisan wars over economic policy. People on either side of those wars have argued that it proves the economic advantages — or damage — of providing the long-term jobless with cash payments.

But digging into the data suggests North Carolina should really be a case study in people seeing what they want to see. Over the last year, the state’s economy has performed remarkably like the economy in nearby states.

North Carolina is more than a case study, too. It is a laboratory for the rest of the country, given that at the start of this year, the federal government eliminated all benefits for the long-term unemployed. Both political sides have looked to North Carolina for evidence to bolster the positions they have taken in this debate.

Republicans, who voted against extending unemployment benefits, argue that ending benefits will spur the long-term jobless to look harder for work; with more eager workers, employment will rise, conservatives say. Democrats, many of whom voted to continue jobless benefits for the long-term unemployed, say that ending benefits will force the unemployed to cut their spending, which may have broader ripple effects that could slow the labor market recovery.

My reading of the North Carolina experiment is that it provides little support for either side.

The question of whether to provide those benefits is an important one. But perhaps the answers should depend more on social values than on macroeconomic implications. After all, the point of unemployment insurance isn’t to boost the economy as a whole, but rather to ensure that an unlucky few don’t shoulder an unbearable burden. Whether we’re doing that is a question more of values than of economic statistics.

Read the entire article here.

The Downward Ramp

From NYT’s “Opinion” by Thomas Edsall:

With the bursting of the tech bubble at the start of the 21st century, two decades of growth at the high end of the job market — once the province of college graduates with strong cognitive abilities — came to an abrupt halt, according to detailed studies of employment and investment patterns by three Canadian economists. We are still feeling the ramifications.

New evidence produced by Paul Beaudry and David A. Green of the University of British Columbia, and Ben Sand of York University, demonstrates that the collapse, between 1980 and 2000, of mid-level, mid-pay jobs — gutted by automation or foreign competition (and often both) — has now spread to the high-skill labor market.

The U-shaped pattern of job growth characteristic of recent decades – strong at the top and bottom, but weak throughout the middle — has now become “a bit more like a downward ramp,” according to David Autor, an economist at M.I.T. who documented the decline in mid-level jobs in the 1980s and 1990s.

Preliminary findings suggest that this trend is alarming in almost every respect. Just one example: the drying up of cognitively demanding jobs is having a cascade effect. College graduates are forced to take jobs beneath their level of educational training, moving into clerical and service positions instead of into finance and high tech.

This cascade eliminates opportunities for those without college degrees who would otherwise fill those service and clerical jobs. These displaced workers are then forced to take even less demanding, less well-paying jobs, in a process that pushes everyone down. At the bottom, the unskilled are pushed out of the job market altogether.

Read the entire article here.

Shutdown: Complacency on Wall Street Could Be Worse Than a Panic

From the New York Times “DealBook” Blog by Jason Eissenger:

Don’t look to a market panic to save us.

We are in upside-down world, where a freak-out now would help stave off financial devastation later. By staying cool, the markets are making a crisis more likely.

Sure, the stock market has ebbed lower, but it hasn’t plunged. Short-term bond markets have hiccupped. Spreads on United States credit default swaps have widened, indicating a slighter greater fear of default, but nothing drastic. The financial media keep grasping at any movement to demonstrate investors are worried. But market participants simply don’t think that the government will end up doing something so obviously reckless and harmful as refusing to pay its debts.

Wall Street’s lack of worry reflects cynicism about Washington (who doesn’t feel that?) but also a deep misreading of how significant the ideological fissures are in the capital. Wall Street is misunderstanding the extremism of the House Tea Party Republicans who precipitated the government shutdown and debt ceiling crisis.

READ THE COMPLETE ARTICLE HERE.

Despite improving jobs report, unemployment remains the same

The Labor Department is reporting that the economy added 200,000 jobs in June, beating the expectations of analysts by about 35,000 jobs. The effective rate of unemployment remained the same at 7.6 percent, indicating that the better-than-expected performance is still inadequate for improving the jobless economic recovery.

Although Wall Street was anticipating the labor report in the hopes that it would signal a healthier economy, the figures and forecasting remain mismatched. The American economy has struggled to improve employment for the millions of individuals who remain out of work. In addition, most workers finding new jobs are discovering that they are worth less now than they were before the Great Recession.

In the New York Times today one worker reported that the inflated expectations of economists did not match her own diminished expectations regarding employment and wages. Sharon MacGregor, 42, of Paterson NJ, like so millions of other Americans who are out of work, is willing to work for much less than she used to earn. With a BA in psychology and 20 years of experience as a graphic designer, she has discovered in this labor market that experience and wages no longer match up.

“Seven years ago, I was making $63,000 a year,” MacGregor said. “If I asked for that now, forget it. I don’t want to work for so much less but I would, just to get back on the market and not to have a gap in my résumé,” she said.

The news from the labor department also prompted investors worrying about the Fed’s recent news that it would begin scaling back the stimulus money it has been pumping into the economy. Fed Chair Ben Bernanke last week said it would quit buying bonds when the unemployment rate hit 7 percent. However, an analysis of unemployment figures over the last year show that the unemployment rate has only dropped .06 of a percent since June 2012. At that rate, it will take another year for the struggling economy to reach a point where the Fed bond-buying program will end.

This is bad news for workers and investors alike. Workers are finding less employment opportunities and less well-paying jobs than before the financial collapse. Investors are finding less opportunities for profits that include job creation, which means most the profit now being generated by companies is dependent on doing more-with-less and shifting the financial burden onto workers desperate for jobs even if they pay less than their experience and skill set demanded several years ago.

Despite the glad-handing talk of economists and politicians alike that the American economy is vital and remains sound, the fact is that overall growth in economic output has been terrible. In the first quarter of this year, for example, the economy grew at an annual rate of 1.8 percent, well short of what is needed to create jobs, bring down the unemployment level significantly, and ensure what jobs are being added are good paying ones that will stimulate growth by encouraging consumers to spend.