Democrats’ Next Big Thing: Government-Guaranteed Jobs

From today’s New York Times:

Prominent Democrats — stung by their eroding support from working-class voters but buoyed by the deficit-be-damned approach of ruling Republicans — are embracing a big idea from a bygone era: guaranteed employment.

The “job guarantee” plans, many of them pressed by Democratic White House hopefuls, vary in scope and cost, but they all center on government-sponsored employment that pays well above the $7.25-an-hour federal minimum wage — a New Deal for a new age, absent the bread lines and unemployment rates of the Great Depression. The most aggressive plans seek to all but eradicate unemployment and to set a new wage floor for all working Americans, pressuring private employers to raise wages if they want to compete for workers.

How such guarantees would be paid for is still largely unresolved. And criticism of the idea has emerged not only from conservatives who detect a whiff of socialism but also from liberals who say guaranteed employment is the wrong way to attack the central issue facing workers in this low-unemployment economy: stagnant wages.

But Democratic leaders hope the push will help their party bridge the growing political divide between white and minority workers, and silence the naysayers who accuse the party of being devoid of new, big ideas.

The employment plans, along with single-payer “Medicare for all” health care, free college, legalized marijuana and ever less restrictive immigration rules, are parts of a broader trend toward a more liberal Democratic Party in the Trump era.

“It’s going to create a more competitive labor market where people are going to start getting living wages, not just minimum wage,” said Senator Cory Booker, Democrat of New Jersey, who unveiled a job-guarantee planin April. “Giving people the dignity of work, of being able to stand on their own two feet, there’s such a strengthening element of that.”

Read the complete article here.

A Strong Jobs Report, Charted

From Oct. 3  NYT “TheUpshot” Blog by Neil Irwin:

Remember a month ago, when a crummy August jobs report raised some questions about just how robust the labor market recovery truly was? Never mind.

The September numbers are in, the last to be reported before midterm elections, and they show a job market that is recovering steadily but surely, with the unemployment rate falling below 6 percent for the first time since July 2008. And a solid 248,000 net new jobs were created.

But what are the finer details of the report telling us about the state of the American labor market? While the overall thrust of the report is unquestionably positive, there are some signs of continued weakness buried in the Labor Department numbers that give some reason for pause.

But first, the good news. The 248,000 gain in September payroll employment is part of a bigger trend over the last year, in which payroll gains have taken a decisive shift upward. You can see the shift in the chart of year-over-year job gains.

Over the course of 2014, the trend has risen from around 2.1 million net new jobs a year to 2.6 million as of September, the strongest since April 2006. That may be the single most important number to know to understand what people are talking about when they discuss the acceleration of American job creation.

So what about that unemployment rate? Crossing below the 6 percent threshold to 5.9 percent is surely a talking point we will hear from Democratic candidates in the remaining weeks of this election cycle, and there is no question it is good news.

And many of the internal details that are part of that decline in the unemployment rate are good, too. In September, 232,000 more people reported being employed and 329,000 fewer people reported being unemployed.

But here’s the less rosy sign of the report. The improving job market does not seem to be pulling people who left the labor force over the last few years back into it. In fact the size of the labor force actually ticked down by 97,000 in September, which in and of itself is too small a number in too volatile a series to make much of, but is part of a longer trend of the size of the labor force holding steady rather than increasing.

Read the entire article and see the graphics here.

Review: Lost Jobs, Missing Workers, and Stagnant Wages

From NYT’s “Business Day” by ALICIA PARLAPIANO, SHAILA DEWAN and NELSON D. SCHWARTZ:

In the five years since the United States began its slow climb out of the deepest recession since the 1930s, the job market has undergone a substantial makeover. The middle class has lost ground as the greatest gains have occurred at the top and bottom of the pay scale, leaving even many working Americans living in poverty. The housing industry, once the primary engine of growth and a fountain of jobs, has shrunk, while health care, technology and energy have led the recovery.

After a long climb from the valley, the number of jobs has finally reached the previous peak of January 2008, with gains of more than 8.5 million jobs since early 2010. Still, the working-age population has grown substantially in the last six years, and the nation’s economy, by reliable estimates, is at least seven million jobs below its potential. That has cost Americans hundreds of billions of dollars in lost output.

With the weak recovery from the recession, more than four million people are still considered among the long-term unemployed, out of work for at least half a year. They face considerably dimmer prospects of finding another job as their skills deteriorate and their contact with the world of work fades.

And that does not count the more than six million who have opted out of the labor force altogether, even taking into account demographic factors like the aging of the population.

Economists hope that many such people will be lured back to work as business improves and that wages will rise as the labor market tightens. But for now, the slack in the economy has served to hold down pay; wages for roughly four-fifths of American workers have declined since 2007, after adjusting for inflation.

Read the entire article and review the interactive graphs here.

Does increasing the minimum wage stifle job creation? Room for Debate

From the New York Times “Room for Debate”:

For the past year, fast-food and retail workers have made it clear that lousy pay should not be the cost for cheap meals and products. Many full-time workers receive food stamps. Thursday’s planned demonstrations are the latest in their drive for better pay and a doubling of the federal minimum wage to $15 an hour. President Obamahas also pressed for a higher minimum wage.

Do low prices need to be subsidized by poverty? Should the minimum wage be raised? What’s the best way to improve the living standards of workers at the bottom of the pay scale?

Read the full text of perspectives from various experts here.